Probability assessment and prediction method for escape area of underwater lost targets
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摘要: 在水下高速机动平台对抗真假目标共存的复杂环境中, 攻击目标选择错误可能导致真实高价值目标逃逸。传统的无针对性再搜索策略效率低下, 因此需要深入分析高价值目标的对抗策略, 综合考虑其机动能力和战术选择, 制定针对性的反对抗与再搜索策略。文中基于高价值目标对抗策略分析, 构建了目标逃逸区域模型, 并提出一种丢失目标逃逸区域的概率评估方法, 用于预测对抗区域内目标的逃逸概率。该方法有助于提升目标再搜索的成功率, 缩短水下高速机动平台的搜索时间, 从而提高整体搜索效率。Abstract: In the complex environment where underwater high-speed maneuvering vehicles face both real and decoy targets, incorrect target selection may lead to the escape of actual high-value targets. Traditional non-targeted re-search strategies are inefficient, necessitating an in-depth analysis of high-value target countermeasure strategies, comprehensive consideration of their maneuverability and tactical choices, and the formulation of targeted counter-countermeasure and re-search strategies. Based on the analysis of high-value target countermeasure strategies, this paper constructs a target escape area model and proposes a probability assessment method for lost target escape areas, aiming to predict the escape probability of targets within the countermeasure area. This method helps improve the success rate of target re-search, reduce the underwater high-speed maneuvering vehicle's search time, and enhance overall search efficiency.
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图 1 丢失目标左转左舷观测几何示意图
Figure 1. Geometric schematic diagram of left-turn port observation with lost target
图 2 丢失目标左转右舷观测几何示意图
Figure 2. Geometric schematic diagram of left-turn starboard observation with lost target
图 3 丢失目标右转左舷观测几何示意图
Figure 3. Geometric schematic diagram of right-turn port observation with lost target
图 4 丢失目标右转右舷观测几何示意图
Figure 4. Geometric schematic diagram of right-turn starboard observation with lost target
图 5 目标转向角概率示意图(无约束)
Figure 5. Schematic diagram of target steering angle probability (unconstrained)
图 6 目标转向角概率示意图(有约束)
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of target steering angle probability (with constraints)
图 7 丢失目标逃逸距离概率密度示意图(无约束)
Figure 7. Schematic diagram of probability density of escape distance for lost targets (unconstrained)
图 8 丢失目标逃逸距离概率密度示意图(有约束)
Figure 8. Schematic diagram of probability density of escape distance for lost targets (with constraints)
图 9 丢失目标逃逸位置的概率密度预测示意图
Figure 9. Schematic diagram of probability density prediction for the location of a lost target escaping
图 10 直角坐标系下高价值目标机动能力限制区域示意图
Figure 10. Schematic diagram of the maneuverability restriction area for high-value targets in a Cartesian coordinate system
图 11 机动能力限制下丢失目标逃逸位置概率密度预测
Figure 11. Probability density prediction of target escape location loss under maneuverability constraints
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