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Volume 26 Issue 6
 
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Unmanned Undersea Systems  > 2018  >  26(6): 575-580
LIU Jia, KOU Xiao-ming, WANG Kai-guo, LI Peng. Calculation Method of Failure Rate for Fault Tree Bottom Event Based on Expert Comprehensive Evaluation[J]. Journal of Unmanned Undersea Systems, 2018, 26(6): 575-580. doi: 10.11993/j.issn.2096-3920.2018.06.011
Citation: LIU Jia, KOU Xiao-ming, WANG Kai-guo, LI Peng. Calculation Method of Failure Rate for Fault Tree Bottom Event Based on Expert Comprehensive Evaluation[J]. Journal of Unmanned Undersea Systems, 2018, 26(6): 575-580. doi: 10.11993/j.issn.2096-3920.2018.06.011
shu

Calculation Method of Failure Rate for Fault Tree Bottom Event Based on Expert Comprehensive Evaluation

doi: 10.11993/j.issn.2096-3920.2018.06.011

  • The 705 Research Institute, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, Xi’an 710077, China

  • Received Date: 2018-06-28
  • Rev Recd Date: 2018-11-12
  • Publish Date: 2018-12-31
    Abstract
  • It is particularly important to perform fault tree analysis on the vital cabin/system of a torpedo for improving diagnostic ability and torpedo reliability level. To solve the problem that it is difficult to obtain the accurate failure rate of bottom event in practical engineering, a fuzzy failure rate calculation method based on expert comprehensive evaluation is proposed in this paper. The analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the relevant theory of fuzzy mathematics are used to calculate the failure rate of bottom event. By establishing a fault tree of “abnormal steering speed” in torpedo tail cabin, the failure rate of the bottom event is analyzed and calculated, and the feasibility of the method is verified. The failure rate calculated by this method can provide a reference for quantitative analysis of fault tree and a priori probability for Bayesian diagnostic reasoning. The analysis results can provide a reference for torpedo diagnosis and maintenance support.

     

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