Research on Hitting Probability of Supercavitating Torpedo Based on Dispersion of Miss Distance

To evaluate the operational effectiveness of straight running torpedoes such as supercavitating torpedo, it is essential to clarify the hitting probability. In this paper, an analytical formula of the miss distance was proposed, which intuitively reveals the dispersion law of the torpedo when it is closest to the target. Simultaneously, considering the geometric size of surface target and the torpedo damage radius, a judgment model of the torpedo hits the target was established. Furthermore, the study analyzes the entire process of a straight running torpedo attack from the detection of the target to the hit target, extracts the source of the error in the process, and uses a Monte Carlo-based statistical method to evaluate the hitting probability of the supercavitating torpedo. The simulation test mainly analyzed the influence of the initial distance between torpedo and target, the initial target board angle, and the target’s speed on the hitting probability. The results show that the best shooting distance of the supercavitating torpedo is within 5 km, and it has a higher hitting probability when the initial target board angle is between 20° and 150°, and the advantage of attacking the low-speed target is mainly reflected in the range of the large target board angle.