基于模糊故障树的潜标系统布放回收风险评估

杨 宇; 杨伟丙; 李宸尧; 蔡 颂

doi:10.11993/j.issn.2096-3920.2022.01.016

基于模糊故障树的潜标系统布放回收风险评估

doi: 10.11993/j.issn.2096-3920.2022.01.016

中国人民解放军32033部队, 海南海口, 570100

详细信息

作者简介:
杨宇(1992-), 男, 硕士, 助理工程师, 主要研究方向为气象海洋学.

中图分类号: P715.5 X820.4
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- 文章访问数: 71
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-13
- 修回日期: 2021-06-13
- 刊出日期: 2022-02-28

Risk Assessment of Deployment and Recovery of Submarine Buoy System Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

32033th Unit, The Chinese Peoples Liberation Army, Haikou 570100, China

摘要

摘要: 针对海洋环境监测潜标系统布放回收成功率不高的问题, 结合相关文献及专家意见, 分析潜标系统布放回收过程潜在风险源, 基于模糊故障树分析法获得风险基本事件与潜标系统布放回收事故间的关联关系, 并对潜标系统在布放回收过程中发生事故的可能性进行定量分析, 获得各基本事件的发生概率和关键重要度, 进而诊断潜标布放回收过程中的关键风险源, 从而提出相应的预防措施以提高潜标系统布放回收成功率。仿真结果表明, 基于模糊故障树分析法能够获得潜标系统布放回收事故发生的概率和关键风险源; 发生概率较高的基本事件均与潜标系统布放阶段有关联; 关键重要度较高的基本事件发生概率也较高。该项研究对海洋环境监测潜标系统的设计及其布放回收风险防控具有一定的参考价值。
- 潜标 /
- 布放回收 /
- 风险评估 /
- 模糊算法
Abstract: Aiming at the low success rate of submarine buoy deployment and recovery in marine environmental monitoring systems, this paper analyzes the potential risk sources in the process of submarine buoy system deployment and recovery combined with relevant literature and expert opinions. Based on the fuzzy fault tree analysis method, the relationship between the basic risk events and the deployment and recovery accidents of the submarine buoy system is obtained, and the possibility of accidents in the deployment and recovery process of the submarine buoy systems analyzed quantitatively. The occurrence probability and critical importance of each basic event are obtained, then the key risk sources in the deployment and recovery processes of the submarine buoy system are diagnosed, and the corresponding preventive measures are presented to improve the success rate of deployment and recovery. The simulation results showed that: 1) based on the fuzzy fault tree analysis method, the probability and key risk sources of the deployment and recovery accidents of the submarine buoy system can be obtained; 2) the basic events with a high probability are related to the deployment stage of submarine buoy system; 3) and the probability of basic events with a higher critical importance is also higher.
- submersible buoy /
- deployment and recovery /
- risk assessment /
- fuzzy fault tree

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参考文献(11)

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